IND · TE
Tyler Warren Fantasy Outlook 2026: TE4 Finish on Five Touchdowns
Warren finished as the fourth tight end in his rookie season despite scoring just five touchdowns on 7.5 expected, and now Michael Pittman is gone.
The rookie baseline was already TE4
Tyler Warren finished his first NFL season as the fourth tight end in total fantasy points, with 188.5 across all 17 games. He caught 76 passes for 817 yards and four touchdowns, adding a rushing score. That is 11.1 points per game, good for tenth among tight ends on a per-game basis.
The sportsbooks had him at 50 receptions and 550.5 receiving yards going into the season, with 4.5 touchdowns. He beat the catch line by 26 and the yardage line by 266 yards, but missed the touchdown projection by half a score. That touchdown miss is the entire story of his second-year case.
He commanded 21% of Indianapolis targets in an offense that just lost Michael Pittman, who had 24% himself. The role was real, the usage was real, and the efficiency on everything except touchdowns was real. What was not real was five total touchdowns on 7.5 expected touchdowns based on his target location and volume.
He scored five touchdowns on 7.5 expected as a rookie. If he converts red-zone opportunities at an average rate in year two, he adds two or three scores without gaining a single additional target.
What TE4 pricing on five touchdowns actually buys
Our board ranks him 60 overall with 184.0 implied PPR points, ESPN has him 52, and drafters are taking him at 63.3. The sportsbook projection for 2026 is 74.5 receptions, 794 yards, and 5.5 touchdowns.
That 5.5-touchdown line is the bet. He scored five times last year on 7.5 expected. If he converts red-zone opportunities at an average rate, he adds two or three touchdowns without gaining a single additional target. At tight end, where the gap between TE3 and TE8 is often just 30 points across a season, three touchdowns is the difference between a value and a miss.