BAL · RB
Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook 2026: RB9 At Age 32 With The Goal Line Still His
Henry ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns last season at age 31, beating a 1,325.5-yard line while finishing RB8. The projection is that he does it again, just slightly less.
Why the consensus lands at RB9 despite the age
Our sportsbook-derived board ranks Derrick Henry 18 overall with 235.0 implied PPR points. ESPN has him 19 and the draft room takes him at 19.3. That alignment exists because the market has decided his age-32 season will look nearly identical to his age-31 season, just with slightly fewer yards.
Last year he ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns across all 17 games, finishing RB8 with 279.5 fantasy points and 16.4 per game. The sportsbooks had posted him at 1,325.5 rushing yards and 13.5 rushing touchdowns before the season. He beat the yardage line by 269.5 yards and the touchdown line by 2.5 scores.
The 2026 projection is 1,250 rushing yards and 12.5 rushing touchdowns with 17 receptions for 133 yards and one receiving touchdown. That would produce roughly 235.0 implied points across a full season. The market has adjusted downward from last year's posted lines, but only modestly, because Henry has now strung together four consecutive seasons finishing second in the NFL in rushing yards.
Henry led the league with 24 carries inside the five-yard line and caught 15 passes. That split is the entire profile.
The goal-line work is the entire profile
Henry led the league with 24 carries inside the five-yard line in 2025 and commanded 61% of Baltimore's rush attempts. That usage rate in that offense is the reason the projection exists at all, because he is not a pass-catching back and never has been.
He caught 15 passes last season against a posted 24.2 receptions, finishing 9 catches short of a line that was already low. In PPR scoring that is 9 points he left on the table, and it clarifies what kind of asset this is: a pure volume play whose value is entirely touchdown-dependent.