Bijan Robinson Fantasy Outlook 2026: RB2 With The Touchdowns Still Missing

The projection was right and the components were not

Our board had Bijan Robinson third overall going into 2025 and ESPN had him second. He finished third overall and second among running backs, with 370.8 fantasy points and 21.8 per game across a full 17-game season.

Underneath that tidy result the individual markets were badly off. Sportsbooks posted him at 1,200.5 rushing yards and he ran for 1,478. They posted him at 375.5 receiving yards and roughly 42 receptions; he caught 79 passes for 820 yards. That is not a small miss — the receiving line was low by 445 yards and 37 catches.

And in the other direction, they had him at 10.5 rushing touchdowns and he scored seven.

The typical elite back gets there on a touchdown total that cannot repeat. Robinson got there despite one that underdelivered.

Why that matters more than the RB2 finish

Read those three misses together and you get a specific, actionable picture. He was the second-best fantasy back in the league while his most valuable scoring category came in three and a half touchdowns short of what the market expected.

That is the opposite of the profile you usually find at the top of a draft board. The typical elite back arrives there on a touchdown total that cannot repeat. Robinson arrived there despite one that underdelivered, on the back of receiving volume nobody priced correctly.

This year the market has adjusted, but only partly: he is posted near 1,175 rushing yards with 8.5 rushing touchdowns, and 575 receiving yards on 65.5 receptions. The receiving projection has moved up substantially and is now closer to reality. The rushing touchdown line has come down. If he simply repeats 2025 with a normal red-zone conversion rate, he clears 315.0 implied points comfortably.