Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook 2026: Seven Bust Weeks and One Boom

What a 10.4 average hides

Khalil Shakir averaged 10.4 PPR points per game in 2025, which reads like a low-end flex with a stable floor. The weekly distribution tells a different story: seven games under 10 points, one over 20, and eight games clustered in the 9-to-14 range that produce neither wins nor losses.

His best week was 20.8 in Week 8. His worst was 0.7 in Week 11. The standard deviation of 5.6 makes that look like modest variance, but the shape of the curve is what matters—he posted more bust weeks than useful ones, and the single boom came in a game most fantasy managers had already benched him for.

He caught 72 passes on a 20% target share in an offense quarterbacked by Josh Allen, which should produce WR2 numbers. Instead he finished WR36 and WR47 last year, one spot worse than his WR42 finish in 2024. The volume is real. The efficiency has been consistent across two seasons. The touchdowns have not shown up.

He posted seven games under 10 points and one over 20, with a 20% target share in an offense quarterbacked by Josh Allen—the volume is real, the touchdowns are not.

The red zone problem that will not solve itself

Shakir has scored eight touchdowns across two years as Buffalo's starting slot receiver. That is not a small sample—it is 32 games of work in an offense that scored 30 touchdowns last season. He saw five end zone targets total across those two years, which means the issue is not drops or bad luck. The issue is that Josh Allen does not look for him near the goal line.

His 2025 receiving touchdown prop was set at 3.77 and he finished with four, which beat the line but still left him outside the top 40 receivers in scoring. The sportsbook projection for 2026 is four touchdowns again, and there is no schematic reason to expect that number to move up now that DJ Moore is in Buffalo.