DAL · WR
CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Outlook 2026: Three Missed Games, Three Touchdowns, Same Question
Lamb missed three games and finished WR22, but ranked 12th in per-game scoring and cleared 1,000 yards for the fifth straight year. The problem was touchdowns, not talent.
What the missed games hide
CeeDee Lamb finished 2025 as the 22nd receiver and 56th player overall, with 200.9 fantasy points across 14 games. Our board had him seventh overall going in and ESPN had him sixth, so that finish looks like a disaster until you check the per-game number.
He averaged 14.3 PPR points per game, which ranked 12th among all receivers. He played 14 of 17 games and cleared 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth consecutive season, with 1,077 on 75 receptions. The skills were intact. The availability was not, and neither were the touchdowns.
The market had posted him at 1,150.5 receiving yards, 106.45 receptions, and 7.5 receiving touchdowns before the season. He beat the yardage line on a per-game basis despite missing three weeks. He missed the catch total because of the games and the efficiency. He missed the touchdown line by four and a half scores, and that gap is the entire difference between a top-five finish and where he actually landed.
He led all receivers with eight drops in 2025 and converted three touchdowns on 11 end-zone targets. The touchdowns went missing because the ball hit his hands and came out.
Three touchdowns on 11 end-zone targets
Lamb saw 11 targets inside the 20 and converted three of them into touchdowns. His expected touchdowns based on target location and depth sat at 6.6, so he underperformed his own volume by more than half.
That would be easier to dismiss as variance if the mechanism were unclear, but it is not. He led all receivers with eight drops in 2025, caught 75 of 83 catchable targets, and posted the worst catch rate of his career. The touchdowns did not go missing because Dallas stopped looking for him. They went missing because the ball hit his hands and came out.